Measuring confidence over value

Traditional prioritization often asks "What's the value of this feature?" But experienced product managers know a better question: "How confident are we this will work?" This shift in thinking changes everything about how you approach prioritization. When you focus on confidence, you start asking different questions. Instead of debating whether Feature X is valuable, you examine how certain you are that it solves a real customer problem. How confident are you in your solution approach? How sure are you about the technical feasibility? Each question helps you move from assumptions to evidence.

Consider using a simple scoring system. Rate your confidence in 3 areas: problem validation, solution effectiveness, and strategic alignment. A feature might seem incredibly valuable on paper, but if your confidence scores are low, it's time to do more research. Run experiments, talk to customers, or build prototypes to increase your confidence before committing significant resources. This approach naturally leads to smaller, faster experiments that validate ideas before big investments.