Assumption mapping

Assumption mapping is a simple way to organize and prioritize your assumptions before testing them. It helps you focus on the most important ones. You start by listing all your assumptions, then place them on a two-axis grid: certainty (how confident you are that the assumption is true) and importance (how crucial the assumption is for your idea to succeed). For example, if you assume users will love a feature but aren’t sure, and it's critical for success, that assumption would go in the high-importance, low-certainty area. These are the assumptions you should test first because they carry the most risk.

By mapping assumptions this way, you can clearly see which ones need immediate attention and testing, helping you make smarter, faster decisions.