Designing leading indicators

Leading indicators are early signals that help predict the final results of your experiments. Think of them like checking if seeds are sprouting rather than waiting for the full harvest. These early metrics let teams learn faster without waiting weeks for final business results.^[1]

Good leading indicators have a clear connection to your end goals. For example, if you want to increase purchases (your final goal), you might track "add to cart" clicks as a leading indicator. More people adding items to their cart today often means more purchases tomorrow. When choosing these indicators, look at your past data to find which early user actions best predict your desired outcomes.

Leading indicators are especially helpful when your main goal happens rarely or takes a long time to measure. By watching these early signals, you can quickly spot which experiment versions show promise, stop unsuccessful tests sooner, and run more experiments in less time. This faster feedback cycle helps teams learn and improve products much more efficiently.